12.2.11 Bets

Well we're back again today after Caulfield was abandoned last week due to heavy rain and flooding.  Today's card lists a lot of Group races and strong fields, which should make for a fantastic day's racing.  Bet-wise, I've narrowed down my main selections to two races, the first and the last, as well as identifying a conditional bet:

Selections:
Caulfield Race 1 - Apennine
Caulfield Race 9 - Vareena Miss and Mid Summer Music

Conditional bet:
Caulfield Race 8 - Avenue (only back if you can get at least $6 for the win)

Normally I only back one selection in a race, but my method for choosing which horse to back when I'm left with multiple selections was inconclusive in Race 9, so I'll split my bet for this race to win the same amount on either horse, eg. current odds available are Vareena Miss $4.80 and Mid Summer Music $6.13 and say if my bet size is $100, then I'd bet $56.08 on Vareena Miss and $43.92 on Mid Summer Music, and that way I would win the same amount not matter which horse wins, assuming one of those two gets up.

Regarding my conditional bet, my selection method returned Avenue in Race 8, but it didn't meet any of my 5 trigger points to make it a definite selection (I need at least 1 match), and as such I only give if a 20% chance of winning (based on past results), and therefor I'll only be backing Avenue for the win if I can get at least $6 ($7.80 is currently available on Betfair).  Had it met one of my 5 trigger points, I would expect its' chance of winning to increase to 40%.

Interestingly, Apennine will be ridden by apprentice, Jason Maskiell again, who has ridden Apennine for two 2nds and a 3rd, with the two 2nds losing by just a half-head.  Expect Apennine to lead at the top of the straight.  It'll just be a question of whether or not Maskiell can stop it from being run over at the line.

The racing at Randwick today looks very ordinary, so I won't be bothering there today.

Good luck today if you decide to have a go.

29.1.11 - No bets today.

No Bets Today:
There's a couple of horses running at Sandown today that I don't mind the look of, but I'm really only concerned with backing the cream of the crop, so I'll give them a miss this time around.

Out of interest, those two horses are At the Heads in Race 4, which at $2, is probably a little too short, and Simply Put in Race 8, which I would rate around a 20% chance of winning, so wouldn't accept anything less than $6.  Good luck if you decide to have a go, but I'll just be watching from the sidelines today.

Update: After hitting the lead 400m out, At the Heads ran very flat in the final 200m, and finished a disappointing 3rd, 2.5 lengths away from a roughie winner.  Simply Put dashed home down the straight to win by a half-head and saluted at odds of at least $9 on BetFair.  

22.1.11 Bets

I thought I might try to revive this blog with a new post today.  Just two bets for today.
Flemington Race 6 Grand Duels
Rosehill Race 8 Parthian
Take them for the win.
Good luck.

Update: Well, we struck a bit of fortune with Grand Duels saluting in the Kensington Stakes.  Steven Arnold steered him into the clear by the 500m, patiently kept him in position until the 200m and Grand Duels shot through like a rubber band at the 200m when Arnold pressed the button.  In the end, he won comfortably by a half length over Warm Love and Cardinal Virtue.  He's definitely one of my favourite jockeys, as he rides with lots of discipline.  I got on Grand Duels at $7.00 fixed odds, which I'm pretty  happy with considering best tote was $6.80, Top Fluc was $6.50 and SP was $6.00, but I understand that $9 could have been had in the early bird betting.

By comparison, Parthian seemed to have a disappointing ride, as it seemed to burn too much energy at the start, only to be ridden several lengths back in the middle of the race, and was then ridden aggressively again 400m out.  To Parthian's credit, he hit the front at the 200m, but had given all he had by that point, and was easily run over the top of at the line, finishing 5th.

18.9.10 Saturday bets

Caulfield:
Race 2 - Live in Sin
Race 5 - Ringa Ringa Rosie
Race 6 - So You Think

Rosehill:
Race 4 - Parables
Race 6 - Sasa
Race 8 - Neeson

Update: Live in Sin ($3.40 BF) and So You Think ($1.90 BF) won their races, Parables ran 2nd, and the others disappointed. 

28.8.10 Bets

I ended up identifying 3 runners that I would back at Rosehill last Saturday.

SR4 #2 Reward for Effort

SR5 #3 Scouting Wide

SR6 #5 Toorak Toff

Rosehill Race 4

My selection method, which consists of several filters, whittled this field of nine down to just the one selection, Reward for Effort. I thought it was a bit of a stand out selection in the race really, and was suprised it was only just the race favourite. Male horses often outperform their female counterparts when they race side by side. Reward for Effort is a 4yo Horse (complete male) while Patronyme, which was the 2nd favourite, is a 6yo Mare. My selection method didn't let me down, and Reward for Effort outclassed his rivals to bolt away and won comfortably by 2 lengths. The second favourite, Patronyme finished 5 lengths back in 8th position. I bet $180 on Reward for Effort. It can be quite difficult sometimes to judge when a horse's price is at its' peak, or about to rise. In the end, I got on at roughly $3.67 with Betfair after commission, though I could have gotten $4 if I had taken Top Fluc, $3.80 with the Best Tote or roughly $4.10 on Betfair after commission if I had judged the peak price perfectly. Getting the best price available is definitely something I need to work on, but I'm certainly not complaining about the win.

Rosehill Race 5

Next up was the 1,800m Premier's Cup, and once again, my selection method pointed my attention to just the one runner, Scouting Wide. It too ended up being the favourite in the race. I wasn't quite as confident in this race as the last and I ended up betting $156 on Scouting Wide for the win at $3.70 Fixed Price, which was $0.20 better than Top Fluc, and $0.10 better than the Best Tote. Scouting Wide led for much of the race, but Snow Alert got a great ride one out and one back, and proved too strong down the straight and beat Scouting Wide by a length.

Rosehill Race 6

My last race for the day, and indeed the week, was the 1,400m Golden Rose, which had 15 runners. This time my filters brought back 2 selections, Masquerador which was the favourite and Toorak Toff which was the 3rd favourite. Under closer scrutiny, I went with Toorak Toff, though I was constantly second guessing myself as Toorak Toff opened at $6 and immediately drifted out to $7.50. Once again, my confidence in my selection wasn't as strong as it was in Race 4, and so I bet $126 on Toorak Toff at an average odds price of roughly $7.60. Had I been better at judging prices, I could have gotten on for roughly $8.20 on Betfair after commsissions, or $8.00 Top Fluc, but at least I beat the Best Tote price of $7.50. Toorak Toff prefers to race from behind, and Damien Oliver rode him perfectly, letting him start slow from his widish barrier and eased him into the race. Oliver let him drift forward from the rear of the field about halfway through the race. By the final turn he had him positioned out wide away from any interference from within the big field, and he charged home down the straight to beat Squamosa by a head. Masquerador ended up finishing 2 lengths back in 7th place.

I used to back multiple selections in a race, but after spending countless hours of analysis, I found a very easy way of narrowing multiple selection races down to just the one selection, and it seems to be extremely successful, and thankfully it didn't fail this time.  I'll share just how I reduce my selections down to one per race if my system returns multiple selections in a later post.

All up it proved to be a very successful day, with 2 firsts and 1 second from my 3 selections, and I won roughly $1,300. To put this into perspective, this was probably one of my top 5 days thus far, so I'm quite pleased with myself, and am hopeful that my countless hours of statistical analysis over the years will pay off.

I just started this blog today, and so this was a recap of last weekend. In future I will post my selections before the race. The vast majority of my bets are on Saturday races in Melbourne and Sydney, and I will typically have between 3 and 10 bets per week.

Whittle: to reduce the amount.

On any given racing day, we're presented with scores of horses, of which only a handful will go on to win, and if we are to succeed in this caper, we must come up with some way of trying to identify those that can win.

All punters vary in their approach to finding a winner. Some are happy if they can isolated 2 or 3 runners in every race on the card, whilst others are more content with just 2 or 3 selections for the entire day. Some create their own markets and look for 'value' bets, and others will just back whatever horses remain after imposing several filters. Some will 'invest' hundreds of dollars buying tips from supposed expert tipsters, while others may focus on the tipsters' selections in the local newspaper.

A statistic that is often bandied around is that 98% of punters lose money. This may be a shock to many of those new to the punt, but it is certainly understandable when one realizes just how much the odds are stacked against us.

Welcome.

Hello and welcome to my blog, where I'll be detailing my bets on Melbourne and Sydney horse races. I'll also offer hints and advice along the way for those that might be new to the punt. All comments and questions are welcome.