12.2.11 Bets

Well we're back again today after Caulfield was abandoned last week due to heavy rain and flooding.  Today's card lists a lot of Group races and strong fields, which should make for a fantastic day's racing.  Bet-wise, I've narrowed down my main selections to two races, the first and the last, as well as identifying a conditional bet:

Selections:
Caulfield Race 1 - Apennine
Caulfield Race 9 - Vareena Miss and Mid Summer Music

Conditional bet:
Caulfield Race 8 - Avenue (only back if you can get at least $6 for the win)

Normally I only back one selection in a race, but my method for choosing which horse to back when I'm left with multiple selections was inconclusive in Race 9, so I'll split my bet for this race to win the same amount on either horse, eg. current odds available are Vareena Miss $4.80 and Mid Summer Music $6.13 and say if my bet size is $100, then I'd bet $56.08 on Vareena Miss and $43.92 on Mid Summer Music, and that way I would win the same amount not matter which horse wins, assuming one of those two gets up.

Regarding my conditional bet, my selection method returned Avenue in Race 8, but it didn't meet any of my 5 trigger points to make it a definite selection (I need at least 1 match), and as such I only give if a 20% chance of winning (based on past results), and therefor I'll only be backing Avenue for the win if I can get at least $6 ($7.80 is currently available on Betfair).  Had it met one of my 5 trigger points, I would expect its' chance of winning to increase to 40%.

Interestingly, Apennine will be ridden by apprentice, Jason Maskiell again, who has ridden Apennine for two 2nds and a 3rd, with the two 2nds losing by just a half-head.  Expect Apennine to lead at the top of the straight.  It'll just be a question of whether or not Maskiell can stop it from being run over at the line.

The racing at Randwick today looks very ordinary, so I won't be bothering there today.

Good luck today if you decide to have a go.

29.1.11 - No bets today.

No Bets Today:
There's a couple of horses running at Sandown today that I don't mind the look of, but I'm really only concerned with backing the cream of the crop, so I'll give them a miss this time around.

Out of interest, those two horses are At the Heads in Race 4, which at $2, is probably a little too short, and Simply Put in Race 8, which I would rate around a 20% chance of winning, so wouldn't accept anything less than $6.  Good luck if you decide to have a go, but I'll just be watching from the sidelines today.

Update: After hitting the lead 400m out, At the Heads ran very flat in the final 200m, and finished a disappointing 3rd, 2.5 lengths away from a roughie winner.  Simply Put dashed home down the straight to win by a half-head and saluted at odds of at least $9 on BetFair.  

22.1.11 Bets

I thought I might try to revive this blog with a new post today.  Just two bets for today.
Flemington Race 6 Grand Duels
Rosehill Race 8 Parthian
Take them for the win.
Good luck.

Update: Well, we struck a bit of fortune with Grand Duels saluting in the Kensington Stakes.  Steven Arnold steered him into the clear by the 500m, patiently kept him in position until the 200m and Grand Duels shot through like a rubber band at the 200m when Arnold pressed the button.  In the end, he won comfortably by a half length over Warm Love and Cardinal Virtue.  He's definitely one of my favourite jockeys, as he rides with lots of discipline.  I got on Grand Duels at $7.00 fixed odds, which I'm pretty  happy with considering best tote was $6.80, Top Fluc was $6.50 and SP was $6.00, but I understand that $9 could have been had in the early bird betting.

By comparison, Parthian seemed to have a disappointing ride, as it seemed to burn too much energy at the start, only to be ridden several lengths back in the middle of the race, and was then ridden aggressively again 400m out.  To Parthian's credit, he hit the front at the 200m, but had given all he had by that point, and was easily run over the top of at the line, finishing 5th.