Saturday, February 12, 2011

12.2.11 Bets

Well we're back again today after Caulfield was abandoned last week due to heavy rain and flooding.  Today's card lists a lot of Group races and strong fields, which should make for a fantastic day's racing.  Bet-wise, I've narrowed down my main selections to two races, the first and the last, as well as identifying a conditional bet:

Caulfield Race 1 - Apennine
Caulfield Race 9 - Vareena Miss and Mid Summer Music

Conditional bet:
Caulfield Race 8 - Avenue (only back if you can get at least $6 for the win)

Normally I only back one selection in a race, but my method for choosing which horse to back when I'm left with multiple selections was inconclusive in Race 9, so I'll split my bet for this race to win the same amount on either horse, eg. current odds available are Vareena Miss $4.80 and Mid Summer Music $6.13 and say if my bet size is $100, then I'd bet $56.08 on Vareena Miss and $43.92 on Mid Summer Music, and that way I would win the same amount not matter which horse wins, assuming one of those two gets up.

Regarding my conditional bet, my selection method returned Avenue in Race 8, but it didn't meet any of my 5 trigger points to make it a definite selection (I need at least 1 match), and as such I only give if a 20% chance of winning (based on past results), and therefor I'll only be backing Avenue for the win if I can get at least $6 ($7.80 is currently available on Betfair).  Had it met one of my 5 trigger points, I would expect its' chance of winning to increase to 40%.

Interestingly, Apennine will be ridden by apprentice, Jason Maskiell again, who has ridden Apennine for two 2nds and a 3rd, with the two 2nds losing by just a half-head.  Expect Apennine to lead at the top of the straight.  It'll just be a question of whether or not Maskiell can stop it from being run over at the line.

The racing at Randwick today looks very ordinary, so I won't be bothering there today.

Good luck today if you decide to have a go.

1 comment:

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